What's More Likely Than a White Sox Win?

Last Friday the White Sox went into their weekend series with the Athletics holding onto a 33-114 record and a dismal .224 winning percentage. At that point my dear friend and esteemed former colleague Derrick Grass astutely perceived that, at the time, 122 of the 134 qualified hitters in the MLB had a higher batting average than the White Sox had winning percentage. In other words before last weekend, 91% of hitters in the majors had a better chance of getting a hit in any given at bat than the White Sox were to win a baseball game.

Since then, Chicago's South Siders have gone on a heater, winning 3 of their 6 games against the second and third worst teams in the American League (A's, Angels) which raised their season's winning percentage to .235, tying them with the 1916 Philly A's for worst of all-time. Now only 84.2% of hitters in the league have a better chance of getting a hit than them winning. Good stuff Sox!

It's truly hard to fathom playing 162 games and failing to reach 40 wins but the White Sox would need a 4-5 record down the stretch to almost win a quarter of their games this year.

This got me thinking, though, what are some things more likely to happen than the White Sox to win a baseball game in the year of our lord 2024...

23.5% Chance the Chicago White Sox Win in 2024

Getting accepted to the University of Virginia as a Virginia resident

One of the most exclusive public institutions of higher educations in America, the University of Virginia in Charlottesville has a 25.5% acceptance rate for in-state applicants. Pretty straightforward here, if you're a senior at Chatham Hall or Norfolk Academy you'd be better off sending a blind application to become a Cavalier in the fall than Andrew Benintendi taking the field for yet another game in the dog days of summer.

Blindly picking a certified diamond single off Katy Perry's Teenage Dream (Japanese Edition) album

What an album. Bring it up to anybody who went to high school in the early 2010's and they'll be overcome with a Johnstown level flood of nostalgia. Sneaking water bottles of Smirnoff and Bacardi into basements to swig, wince, cough, spit, hold back a little puke, and repeat. All while Miss Perry belts out DO YOU EVER FEEL, LIKE A PLASTIC BAG?!?!
There were four diamond singles off this album: the titular Teenage Dream, California Gurls (feat. Snoop Dogg), E.T., and Firework. And, of course, the Japanese release of this album had 13 songs because it included the bonus track California Gurls (innerpartysystem main mix; feat. Snoop Dogg). Therefore, the likelihood of blindly shuffling to a diamond track on that album is 4/13 = 30.8% and significantly more likely than the White Sox smoking a victory cigar.

Using an orange that came from Florida when juggling oranges

Your standard, run-of-the-mill, no-frills juggler is going to juggle three items. Four gets damn tricky. I've tried. But you toss me three round objects and I can juggle 'em. Baseballs? Sure. Baseball sized globes? Definitely. Watermelons that were picked early and are the size of like a baseball? No doubt.
Oranges? Uh yeah, lol, I can juggle oranges. And if 10% of the world's oranges come from the Sunshine State, then there's a 28.9% chance [.1+.1+.1-(.1*.1*.1)-(.1*.1)] that I'm using an orange from Florida when putting on a performance for a group of friends and/or family.